Replacing 'guesstimations' with Monte Carlo simulations

by Lucas Fernandes da Costa

There are many ways of estimating how long a project will take. All of them are a waste of time. Software development is not a deterministic process; therefore, even the most informed guesses usually yield poor results. In this talk, you’ll learn how to use historical data to create a Monte Carlo Simulation, which will allow you to make accurate forecasts and stop “guesstimating”. Besides being much more accurate, these simulations will let you stop wasting time with planning poker and plan according to your risk appetite in a much more mature way.